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順酐逐步探底 市場能否出現轉機

來源:http://www.lcavanah.com/ 日期:2021-03-12 發布人:shungan 瀏覽次數:
順酐生產成本壓力日益凸顯。進入6月,順酐生產原料跌勢暫止,且又陸續出現上漲機會,正丁烷漲幅略窄,而苯法工藝原料優勢大大萎縮,且價格有明顯上漲,雖然后續漲勢難持續,但是對于當前價低的順酐來講,成本面壓力不斷提升,當前順酐兩種生產工藝平均虧損在200元/噸附近,因此成本面壓力或暫緩工廠繼續低出意愿,市場出現低價概率降低。
The production cost pressure of maleic anhydride is increasingly prominent. In June, the decline of raw materials for maleic anhydride production stopped temporarily, and there were opportunities to rise again. The increase of n-butane was slightly narrow, while the advantages of raw materials for benzene process were greatly reduced, and the price had a significant rise. Although the follow-up rise was difficult to sustain, the pressure on the cost of maleic anhydride, which is currently low in price, continued to rise. At present, the average loss of the two maleic anhydride production processes is around 200 yuan / ton, so the cost of maleic anhydride is high Local pressure may delay the willingness of factories to continue to lower, and the probability of low price in the market will be reduced.
低價刺激商家入市。因在一季度春節前后,部分商家有積極入市表現, 但是3月份以后行情不及預期,因此商家持倉壓力較大,因此在順酐下跌過程中,多數商家及下游謹慎建倉情緒明顯,而當前順酐價格運行至新低,且工廠陸續出現成本壓力,部分商家建倉意愿提升,陸續有補倉表現,且一手商能拿到更為優惠的價格,也將繼續緩解主力工廠的內貿銷售壓力,對于價格也有一定支撐。
Low prices stimulate businesses to enter the market. Due to the positive market entry performance of some businesses around the Spring Festival in the first quarter, However, after March, the market was lower than expected, so the pressure of business positions was greater. Therefore, during the decline of maleic anhydride, most businesses and downstream companies were cautious in building positions. At present, the price of maleic anhydride is running to a new low, and the cost pressure of factories is gradually emerging. Some businesses are willing to build positions, and they are willing to fill positions. Moreover, the first-hand businesses can get more favorable prices, which will continue to ease The domestic sales pressure of the main factories also has some support for the price.
非主流產區穩價意愿明顯。5月中旬開始的此輪大幅下跌,主要是主產區山東地區領跌,其余市場處于跟跌態勢,但是因苯法工藝目前可利用產能小,雖然走貨不暢,但是持倉壓力不大,因此在順酐價格運行至新低,且成本壓力出現后,跟跌意愿降低,陸續出現穩價心態,關注主產區庫存消耗情況指引,也降低國內順酐各市場繼續出現惡性價格競爭局面,也對價格有一定支撐。
The willingness to stabilize prices in non mainstream production areas is obvious. This round of sharp decline started in mid May, mainly led by the main production area of Shandong, and the rest of the market is in the trend of following the decline. However, due to the small available capacity of benzene process, the price of maleic anhydride is running to a new low and the cost pressure appears, the willingness to follow the decline is reduced, and the stable price mentality appears one after another, and the inventory consumption in the main production area is concerned As a result, the domestic market of maleic anhydride continues to face vicious price competition, which also has certain support for the price.
但是,順酐供大于求格局依然持續。當前經濟環境疲軟,樹脂整體產業鏈表現并不健康,尤其是當前已處于需求淡季,需求面對于價格支撐力度弱;另外,當前丁烷法順酐檢修產能僅在12萬噸,對于目前順酐供需關系支撐作用不大,因此順酐暫難出現明顯上漲行情,后續恐仍維持低區間調整為主,
However, the pattern of maleic anhydride oversupply continues. At present, the economic environment is weak, and the overall resin industry chain is not healthy, especially in the off-season of demand, and the price support of demand is weak. In addition, the current butane maleic anhydride maintenance capacity is only 120000 tons, which has little support for the current supply-demand relationship of maleic anhydride. Therefore, it is difficult for maleic anhydride to rise significantly for the time being, and it is likely to maintain a low range adjustment in the future,
綜合來看,國內順酐市場運行至當前位置續跌風險降低,且在非主流地區退出此輪價格競爭之后,利于主產區低價出貨,緩解內銷壓力,也有利于后續順酐出現操作機會,價格趨穩概率增加,不排除局部出現試探性小漲機會。
On the whole, the domestic maleic anhydride market is running to the current position, the risk of further decline is reduced, and after the non mainstream areas withdraw from this round of price competition, it is conducive to the main production areas to ship at a low price, relieve the pressure of domestic sales, and also conducive to the subsequent operation opportunities of maleic anhydride, the probability of price stabilization is increased, and it does not rule out the chance of local tentative small rise.

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