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順酐繼續“逆襲” 重回年內高位區間

來源:http://www.lcavanah.com/ 日期:2021-04-29 發布人:shungan 瀏覽次數:
國內順酐市場維持在上行通道,而支撐此輪上漲行情的主要因素是臺風來襲影響物流運輸,主產區集中檢修,以及成本面壓力,等等,而在順酐運行至六千上方之后,市場對于順酐繼續沖高存有疑慮,但是順酐的逆襲之路依然在繼續。
The domestic maleic anhydride market remains in the upward channel, and the main factors supporting this round of rising market are the impact of typhoons on logistics and transportation, centralized maintenance in main production areas, and cost pressure, etc. after maleic anhydride runs to more than 6000, the market has doubts about maleic anhydride continuing to rise, but the counter attack road of maleic anhydride is still continuing.
不可否認,順酐基本面的支撐力度有限,隨著主力工廠的恢復供貨,以及供需分歧的現狀依舊維持等利空消息面抑 制,順酐持續上漲條件并不充分,尤其是苯法順酐工廠成本壓力繼續凸顯。
It is undeniable that the basic support of maleic anhydride is limited. With the resumption of supply of main factories and the current situation of supply and demand differences still maintained, the conditions for maleic anhydride to continue to rise are not sufficient, especially the cost pressure of benzene maleic anhydride factory continues to highlight.
但是,對于基本面表現仍不牢靠的順酐市場,續漲仍存阻力。
However, for the maleic anhydride market whose fundamental performance is still not reliable, there is still resistance to continue to rise.
一方面,供應面,隨著山東及河南地區供應量的恢復,其余均將恢復運行,屆時丁烷法供應量將有所提升,供應面相對充足。
On the one hand, the supply side, with the recovery of supply in Shandong and Henan, the rest will resume operation, when the butane supply will be increased, the supply side will be relatively sufficient.
二方面,需求面,下游樹脂開工率變化不大,依舊維持在低位負荷,因此預期開工率提升有限,另外當前樹脂原料苯乙烯,苯酐,順酐均有走高,樹脂成本面壓力限 制采購表現。
On the other hand, on the demand side, the operating rate of downstream resin has not changed much and remains at a low load, so the expected increase in operating rate is limited. In addition, the current raw materials of resin, such as styrene, phthalic anhydride and maleic anhydride, are rising, and the pressure of resin cost side restricts the purchasing performance.
但是上述兩方面消息有利也有弊,雖然一定程度上令順酐續漲阻力,但另外則是因順酐工廠多數持倉壓力不大,且下游樹脂工廠及貿易商當前原料庫存低位,等令市場仍有剛需采購量存在,因此對于當前順酐價位有所支撐,暫走弱風險小。
However, the above two aspects of news have both advantages and disadvantages. Although the maleic anhydride continued to rise to a certain extent, the other reason is that most of the maleic anhydride factories have little pressure to hold positions, and the downstream resin factories and traders have low inventory of raw materials, which makes the market still have rigid demand. Therefore, the current price of maleic anhydride has some support and the risk of temporary weakness is small.
因此整體來看,順酐市場仍有苯法成本壓力支撐短時不排除工廠仍有沖高跡象,但是需求面仍是價位方向的因素之一,因樹脂原料成本也偏高,因此恐限 制樹脂對高價原料接貨興趣,后續順酐漲幅也將收窄。
Therefore, on the whole, the market of maleic anhydride is still supported by the cost pressure of benzene process. In the short term, it can not be ruled out that the factory still has the sign of soaring, but the demand side is still one of the factors in the price direction. Because the cost of resin raw materials is also on the high side, it is afraid to limit the resin's interest in receiving high price raw materials, and the subsequent rise of maleic anhydride will narrow.

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